Nawaz Sharif Emerges as Front Runner in Pakistan Elections: What It Means for India
Analysts Suggest Stability on Western Borders but Challenges Loom for the New Pakistani Prime Minister
As veteran leader Nawaz Sharif takes the lead in the Pakistan general elections, experts anticipate a period of stability on India’s western borders for the next three years. Sharif, a seasoned politician with the blessings of Rawalpindi GHQ, is seen as a mature and experienced leader compared to his predecessor, the incarcerated Imran Khan, and the youthful PPP leader Bilawal Zardari.
Regardless of the election outcome, Pakistan’s challenges remain formidable. The next Prime Minister, whether Sharif or another candidate chosen by the public, will grapple with a struggling economy, insurgency in Balochistan and KPK, terrorism in Punjab province, and a society marked by radicalization. Described by some as a “failed state,” Pakistan relies on support from China, which strategically utilizes Islamabad in its regional dynamics with arch-rival India.
While the Pakistan Army holds significant influence in the country, Nawaz Sharif is considered a favorable choice for Rawalpindi, especially following the perceived failure of the experiment with Imran Khan. Sharif, despite facing removals by the President, Army, and Supreme Court in the past, has demonstrated resilience in pursuing his political path.
Contrary to attempts to draw equivalence between India and Pakistan as nuclear-powered rivals, the Modi government’s focus is strictly on cross-border terrorism. Despite any potential normalization of ties if Sharif assumes office, India’s stance on countering cross-border terrorism will remain unwavering. India, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, respects Sharif but has clear objectives in dealing with a radicalized Pakistan.
If Sharif becomes the Prime Minister, there is a possibility of resuming trade and traditional ties with Islamabad. However, this hinges on the new PM taking decisive action against anti-India Punjabi terrorist groups. Pakistan, facing challenges on its western front with Iran and Afghanistan, cannot afford to escalate tensions on its eastern border with terrorism.
Unlike his predecessors, Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not seek a legacy with Pakistan but is unequivocal about expectations from the radicalized state. While Sharif’s potential leadership may bring a semblance of stability to India’s western front, it will take Pakistan years to overcome its current economic and political challenges. The blame, according to analysts, lies on both the Pakistan Army and unscrupulous politicians.
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