The strained relations between New Delhi and Ottawa are leaving a tangible mark on immigration patterns, with a staggering 62% decrease in the number of applications from Indians for permanent residency in Canada reported in December 2023.
Data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) reveals a significant drop in applications, from 16,796 in December 2022 to 6,329 in December 2023. This declining trend persisted throughout the last quarter of 2023, with Indian applications falling from 35,735 to 19,579 for the same period.
Several factors may have contributed to this sharp decline, including the strained bilateral ties following Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s remarks in the House of Commons on September 18. Trudeau mentioned “credible allegations” of a potential link between Indian agents and the killing of pro-Khalistan figure Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Surrey, British Columbia, on June 18 of the same year.
Another significant factor impacting the reduced numbers is the decreased diplomatic presence of Canada in India. In October, 41 diplomats were asked to leave, leading to a smaller presence of IRCC staff in the country. This move, described by Ottawa as a “mass expulsion,” has added to the challenges faced by Indian applicants.
While the numbers declined in the later part of 2023, the preceding months saw a substantial increase in permanent residency applications. Figures between January and September 2023 totaled 90,215, contributing to a yearly total of 112,107 out of 426,730 applications from all countries in 2022.
Canada has announced it will not increase permanent residency levels immediately, maintaining targets of 485,000 for 2024 and 500,000 in 2025, as set in 2022. However, starting in 2026, the government plans to stabilize permanent resident levels at 500,000, allowing time for successful integration and continued augmentation of Canada’s labor market, as stated by IRCC.
As bilateral tensions persist, the impact on immigration dynamics is evident in the drastic reduction of Indian applications for Canadian permanent residency. The multifaceted factors contributing to this decline underscore the complex interplay between diplomatic relations and immigration trends, shaping the landscape for aspiring immigrants from India to Canada.
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